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Huitong Financial App News-on Thursday (May 2), the price of gold fell as US bond yields rose. International gold traded around US $2306 / oz, hitting a daily high of 2326.Pok é monnftcrypto.34 US dollars per ounce. In addition, the general risk appetite in the market has also put downward pressure on the price of gold, a traditional safe haven asset.
In a media exchange on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell expressed concern about the current high inflation and pointed out that the path of falling inflation is not clear. This suggests that the Fed may need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time, which not only drives up Treasury yields, but also weakens demand for interest-free gold.
Nonetheless, the dollar's attractiveness was affected by Mr Powell's downplay of the risk of raising interest rates, causing it to fluctuate near a two-week low hit on Friday. This may provide some support for the gold market, especially at a time when the much-anticipated US non-farm payrolls report is about to be released, helping to ease the downward trend in gold prices.
The influence of Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Gold Market
The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its recent meeting was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Colin Powell's speech suggested that the path to cut interest rates would be longer than expected, which was interpreted by the market as a sign of dovish bias, leading to a fall in the dollar index and a drop in US 10-year Treasury yields, boosting the price of gold.
Gold prices fell on Thursday as U. S. bond yields climbed. In addition, the general risk appetite in the market has also put downward pressure on the price of gold, a traditional safe haven asset.
In a media exchange on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell expressed concern about the current high inflation and pointed out that the path of falling inflation is not clear. This suggests that the Fed may need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time, which not only drives up Treasury yields, but also weakens demand for interest-free gold.
Nonetheless, the dollar's attractiveness was affected by Mr Powell's downplay of the risk of raising interest rates, causing it to fluctuate near a two-week low hit on Friday. This may provide some support for the gold market, especially at a time when the much-anticipated US non-farm payrolls report is about to be released, helping to ease the downward trend in gold prices.
Technical Analysis and Market sentiment
Gold price is at the key resistance level of 2325.Pok é monnftcryptoAfter .90 USD / oz, if it fails to break through, it may return to bearish trend and may fall to the main target of US $2260.60 / oz. However, if gold breaks through this resistance level, it is likely to return to the bullish trend.
From a technical analysis point of view, gold prices seem to have gained strong support at $2280 after falling below the key psychological barrier of $2300 / oz, which happens to be the Fibonacci pullback level of 50 per cent of the rising trend in gold prices between March and April.
If the gold price falls below the support of $2280 / oz, it could trigger a greater downward trend, further to the potential support area of $2268-$2265 / oz, and then continue to slide to the range of $2230-$2225 / oz. Even test the important psychological barrier of $2200 / oz.
In the upward direction, the initial resistance to gold prices is at $2335 / oz, followed by highs of $2352-2353 / oz reached earlier this week. If the gold price can maintain its upward momentum, it could break through the resistance level of $2371-2372 / oz, which in turn challenges the round mark of $2400 / oz and is expected to approach the all-time high of $2431-2432 / oz set on April 12.
Global Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors
Global macroeconomic uncertainty, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as central bank purchases, particularly demand from Chinese retail investors, are driving gold prices higher. Gold has risen about 13 per cent so far this year and hit an all-time high last month.
Institutional viewpoint
Market strategist Phillip Streible believes that we are like a stagflation environment, the Fed will eventually cut interest rates at some point in the future, and the market needs a new catalyst for gold prices to return to $2400. Chris Gaffney, president of global markets at EverBank, mentioned that the increase in global economic and political uncertainty is conducive to gold's performance as a safe haven.
Forecast of future trend
Analysts expect gold to trade between support of $2290.00 / oz and resistance of $2335.00 / oz, with a bearish trend in the short term. However, global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties could bring new volatility to the gold market.
Short-term volatility in the gold market is affected by a variety of factors, including the Fed's interest rate policy, global macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events. When making investment decisions, investors should comprehensively consider these factors and pay close attention to the market dynamics. Despite the uncertainty, the nature of gold as a safe haven makes it attractive in times of global economic turmoil.